GAME INFORMATION: 9:30 P.M., WEDNESDAY, JULY 14 AT COTTON BOWL, DALLAS
TV: FS1
BETTING ODDS: GUATEMALA +3300/MEXICO -5000/DRAW +1300
TOTALS: OVER 3.5 -125/UNDER 3.5 -110
It’s time for Mexico to make a statement, and that means the Tricolores need to put up a pretty big number in this one. They’ve got the right opponent for a rout, as Guatemala looked hopeless against El Salvador in its opening match. The Chapines are only here because Curacao had a COVID outbreak, leaving them with two days to get ready for the tournament and adjust to having a new coach, far from ideal preparation. If Mexico doesn’t put up a strong number in this match, El Tri might be the next team with a new coach, as Tata Martino needs to have a good showing at the Gold Cup to keep Mexican supporters satisfied with his leadership.
MATCH BET: MEXICO -2.5, -190
Reason: It’s hard to get any kind of value for this bet, given the situation. But that’s where we are, because Mexico’s rout of Guatemala appears to be that certain, given that Mexico really should have won its opener against Trinidad and Guatemala never threatened El Salvador. Mexico beat Guatemala 3-0 in a friendly in Sept. 2020, and a similar rout here seems very likely. You might even want to give another goal to get the Mexicans at +135, as it seems highly unlikely that Guatemala will offer much resistance.
SCORE BET: MEXICO 5, GUATEMALA 0, +700
Reason: Here’s a sure sign that you have a bad situation on your hands: some sportsbooks won’t even offer the most likely score as an option. On one book, anything over four goals per team gets lumped into “any other score”, and for this match, that book has “any other score” at +265, making it the most likely winner out of all the score options. Having seen these teams play, I can’t say I blame them.
SIDE BET: OVER 3.5 GOALS, -125
Reason: The only question here is whether Mexico keeps its foot on the gas. If El Tri keeps pushing from the opening whistle, this bet will hit with ease. This shouldn’t be a repeat of what happened with Trinidad; Guatemala isn’t a strong defensive side and doesn’t have a history of putting up stiff resistance against Mexico. The attack should come to life to the Mexicans and ease a lot of concerns in Martino’s camp.
