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What’s Up with the Heavy MLB Favorites Today?

There are 15 MLB games today (6/11/21) for you to bet as you head into the weekend. There’s nothing better then starting your gambling weekend off hot on a Friday night. Dallas and Soup wouldn’t know what that’s like since they are down bad in the June Cappers contest.

But when you look at today’s slate of games, you’ll notice three teams are huuuuuuuge (Donald Trump voice) favorites.

  • Rockies @ Reds (-205) – opened -233
  • Pirates @ Brewers (-280) – opened -263
  • Rangers @ Dodgers (-330) – opened -263

Away Dogs ATS:

Away Dogs SU:

There are also five teams that are between -155 and -175 favorites. So, on paper, there’s not a ton of evenly matched games today. Is there any value, however, in taking these three big underdogs?

In short, probably not. The Rockies are trash on the road (5-24) and are riding with Kyle Freeland (0-1, 6.23 ERA) this evening against Cincinnati. The Reds have actually been playing better baseball of late as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games thanks to a four game sweep of St. Louis. The season series between Colorado and Cincinnati is 2-2 with the Reds winning the last two games, 6-5 and 7-6. Tyler Mahle will go for Cincinnati tonight and he’s 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He’s allowed seven home runs, 20 walks and has struck out 72 batters in 62.1 innings.

Confidence in Colorado: 3/10 – It worries me that Colorado can’t win on the road but two of those five road wins have come in its last six road contests. Mahle has won his last three games and helped the Reds get a 6-5 (F/12) win over Colorado the last time these two teams played. The Rockies do not win this game.

The Pirates also suck not only on the road but in general as they are the third worst team in baseball currently. Even worse than Colorado. Chase De Jong gets his first start for Pittsburg tonight against Milwaukee. While, Brandon Woodruff looks to improve to 5-2 this season. He has a Top 4 ERA in the league at 1.42 and has won his last two starts after dropping back-to-back contests in early May. Pittsburg actually leads the season series 2-1 and has outscored the Brewers 12-6 in those two games.

Confidence in Pittsburg: 2/10 – The Pirates are 3-11 in their last 14 road games, so keep that in mind. De Jong has played in two games this season and has finished with five K’s in each of those two games but gave up three dingers in his last time out against Miami, so that’s not ideal. Pittsburg is also 8-21 in its last 29 games against a right-handed starter and Milwaukee is 11-2 in its last 13 games overall. Brewers run line is most likely the best play here.

We might as well go 3-for-3, right? The Rangers are also hot garbage. Only nine wins on the road this season and they’re putting Mike Foltynewicz on the mound inside Dodger Stadium at 9:10 pm (CT). Now Foltynewicz doesn’t deserve all the blame for his poor record (1-6) because Texas’ offense hasn’t helped him out when he’s on the mound. In his seven starts, the Rangers have averaged 3.1 runs and allowed five runs.

Side note: This dude looks like a bad boy. The tats on just one arm. The hair. The poor winning percentage. He’s the dude your sister brings home from college on Christmas break and proceeds to flirt with your mom for four straight days. Your little brother idolizes him and your dad is down five bottles of Windsor because he can’t handle another alpha male in his house.

Confidence in Texas: 5/10 – Hard to bet against a guy that looks like Foltynewicz and honestly Clayton Kershaw hasn’t been great this season. He’s just 7-5 with a 3.66 ERA but does have 86 K’s and a 1.01 WHIP in 76.1 innings. This is the first game between these two squads this season as they’ll only play three against each other. The Rangers will steal one and it very well could be this first one with Foltynewicz shining bright under the Dodger Stadium lights.

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