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1/27/21 Lock of the Day: Utah State @ UNLV

Las Vegas, the capital of gambling and crazy adventures based on the movie the Hangover, features a college basketball game for any of you night owl gamblers. This is a rematch of Utah State and UNLV and starts at 10:00 PM on FS1. These teams played each other two days ago and UNLV emerged victorious by a score of 59-56.  Utah State comes into the game with a 12-5 record and 9-2 conference record. UNLV has a 6-6 record and 3-2 record in conference play. Normally, conference teams do not play what is basically a double header game, but with COVID this two game series style has been normalized across college basketball. Betting lines currently have the road team Utah State as a 6.5 point favorite with an over/under set at 135.5.


UNLV Breakdown

UNLV has been plagued by postponements and quarantine, which is why they have only played a total of 12 games. However, UNLV is currently on a three game win streak, and they have covered the spread six of their last seven games. The under has been 5-2 in those last seven games. UNLV currently ranks 222 with 68.4 points per game (PPG) and 158 with 70.3 points allowed per game (PAG)


Utah State Breakdown

Utah State has been dominating the Mountain West conference with a 9-2 record and is currently in 2nd place in the Mountain West. Utah State ripped off a 10 game win streak where they were 10-0 ATS before losing their last two games. Utah State has been playing some great basketball all year with this recent two game skid being their only slump this year. Utah State ranks 106 with 73.7 PPG and 11th with 60.8 PAG.


1/25/21 Utah State @ UNLV Breakdown

Utah State could not make a bucket to save their lives in this first matchup on Monday shooting 32.8% from the field and 22.7% from 3PT. In comparison, UNLV also shot 32.8% from the field but made up for this by shooting 43.3% from 3PT. Utah State’s season average is 44.4% from the field and 33.6% from 3PT.  UNLV’s season average is 42.0% from the field and 34.8% from 3PT. Obviously, both teams struggled shooting, but Utah State really struggled from deep, while UNLV shot way above their season average. Utah State shot five more free throws (12 vs 7) and grabbed six more rebounds (44 vs 38). These teams should regress to their mean, suggesting UNLV plays worse and Utah State plays better. Since Utah State only lost by three points, the data would suggest that if both teams play their average game Utah State easily covers.


Trends This Season

Utah State is 11-5 ATS.

Utah State is 5-3 ATS on the road.

Utah State is 4-2 ATS as road favorites.

UNLV is 6-4 ATS.

UNLV is 2-2 ATS at home.

Utah State is 10-6 at hitting the under and 5-3 on the road.

UNLV is 6-4 at hitting the under and 3-1 at home.



Utah State shot terrible on Monday, while UNLV shot amazing from 3PT. In addition to this, Utah State went on a dry spell and missed 18 of 19 shots. Considering all of this, Utah State only lost by three points. Utah State out played UNLV in every facet of the game except shooting. Utah State should regress to the mean and shoot significantly better, while UNLV will not be able to shoot 43.3% from 3PT again. Utah State will get their revenge in this rematch and bounce back with a big dub. I predict an easy cover for Utah State tonight.



Utah State -6.5


Article written by DJ Loutsch

Twitter: @djlo4422

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